The quantum unlock: and five more pillars shaping payments in 2026

12/30/2025

 

Oceania Edition

Anthony Jones, Head of Product & Solutions, Visa Oceania

With world-leading digital wallet adoption and progressive regulation, Australia and New Zealand could lead a new wave of digital transformation in 2026 – no longer determined by speed, but intelligence, security, and interoperability across networks, identities, and value systems.,

These six pillars of innovation are shaping commerce in the region in 2026 and beyond:

1. Quantum computing
2. Agentic commerce
3. Hyper-personalisation
4. Stablecoins
5. Global interoperability
6. Next-generation eCommerce

Technology Shifts

Quantum: preparing for the big break

“The countdown to ‘Q-Day’ begins in the boardroom, not the server room.”

Quantum computing threatens today’s cryptographic foundations which underpin card networks, digital wallets, and cryptocurrencies. The immediate risk is "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" attacks, where adversaries store encrypted data today, then wait until more powerful technology (like quantum computers) is available in the future to break the encryption and access the information.

Post-quantum cryptography adoption is accelerating, including AES-256 and lattice-based systems. These new standards will help future-proof payments against quantum threats. Regulators in Australia and New Zealand now list quantum resilience as a strategic priority.

The payments ecosystem must begin upgrading cryptographic libraries, testing quantum-safe APIs, and aligning to established standards. While the quantum opportunity (and threat) might be a while off yet, 2026 is the year businesses will start to prepare in earnest. It’s critical that the industry ramp up collaboration to make sure the ecosystem is prepared.

But there’s no shortage of innovation happening fast in 2026 – here are some further innovations that are already catching on fast.

Agentic Commerce

“Chat will evolve into action, and machines will pay machines”

In 2026 AI-powered agents will shift consumers and businesses from active browsing to strategic oversight. Individuals will delegate tasks – shopping, comparison, negotiations, and payments – to a fleet of intelligent agents accessible through voice, text, images, and AR.

A typical interaction may involve a simple voice prompt to renew insurance, with an agent scanning the market, reviewing PDS documents, comparing excess levels, and selecting the best option. For businesses, Procurement Agents will embed supplier agreements, ESG rules, and governance frameworks, automating purchasing and accounts payable while increasing accuracy and reducing administrative friction.

In the year ahead we expect to see the emergence of agent-to-agent (A2A) negotiation. Buyer agents will operate within user-defined ceiling prices while a seller’s agent negotiates using floor prices, creating efficient, real-time commerce. This will raise new security challenges as AI-driven fraud and synthetic identities proliferate. Biometrics and "Intent Verification" – confirming whether a user directed their agent to act – will become central to authentication.

For sellers, the shift requires becoming "agent optimised." Instead of optimising for human browsing, ecommerce sites will need structured product data, trusted APIs, and verifiable credentials so agents can reliably access and assess offers. GEO (Generative Engine Optimisation) – the new frontier for seller visibility in an AI-driven economy – will replace SEO as sellers compete for visibility in the Agent Economy.

Stablecoins

“From crypto hype to real-world pipes”

Stablecoins represent a structural shift toward unified value transfer and transaction messaging. By embedding rules directly into the money, payments can execute programmable logic – escrow, automated settlements, or protocol-level tax handling.

Stablecoins have moved beyond crypto speculation into regulated financial infrastructure. In 2026, we expect increased use across intra-Asia and Trans-Tasman trade, offering faster and cheaper international settlement. Businesses could reduce settlement times from days to seconds.

Western Union’s stablecoin expansion and Stripe’s USDC payouts show a clear migration towards blockchain-based clearing. While most stablecoins are USD-denominated, improved regulation is likely to fuel the rise of Euro, GBP, AUD, and NZD stablecoins.

For markets lacking mature real-time payment systems, stablecoins offer a leapfrog path, similar to how mobile networks leapfrogged landlines in emerging economies.

Experience Shifts

Hyper-personalisation

“Services that know you as well as your AI chatbot does”

Generative AI’s long-term memory, paired with transaction data and behavioural signals, will enable true real-time personalisation. Instead of simple recommendation engines, AI-powered services will understand context and crucially remember all previous interactions and preferences.

Tokenised transaction data will allow secure sharing across agents operating inside banking apps, seller platforms, or digital wallets. This will enable proactive financial support: recommending the best card to use, maximising rewards, highlighting cost-saving opportunities, or suggesting instalments when temporary cash flow gaps appear.

In travel, an AI agent could build an itinerary based on past behaviour while recommending payment methods, suggesting how to use benefits, and insurance inclusions. Flexible Credentials – a single way to pay that adapts to each transaction - will allow per-transaction optimisation across fees, rewards, FX, and seller offers. Consumers will gain from reduced cognitive load, spending less time managing admin and more time living life, while issuers and sellers set to gain from higher engagement and richer data-driven interactions.

Global interoperability

“Borders are for maps, not payments”

The global electronic payments landscape is fragmented across cards, QR codes, digital wallets, and domestic payment rails. Consumers increasingly expect global consistency. Interoperability will accelerate not through a single system, but through federation, connecting networks while preserving national control and trust.

Australian travellers already tap cards or mobiles across much of Asia yet still rely on notes and coins in QR-dominant environments. Capabilities like Visa’s Scan to Pay can link Australian and NZ issued cards to local QR wallets, enabling tourists to pay like locals.

This interoperability will also work in reverse. Visitors from Asia will be able to link their domestic super-app wallets to tokenised cards for contactless payments in Australia and New Zealand. This bi-directional model is crucial for the region’s tourism and international education sectors.

In 2026 we forecast the growth in these practical, inter-operable systems that further reduce friction and simplify life for tourists and business travellers.

Next-generation eCommerce

“Commerce has left the building – now it’s everywhere”

The future of ecommerce will be decentralised and embedded across the internet. Commerce will move from websites to "ambient" experiences, enabling users to buy directly from social content, news articles, product placements, or AI-agent recommendations.

Users will transact using pre-authenticated tokens without being redirected to standalone checkout pages. Manual card entry and Guest Checkout will fade away as digital wallets, tokenisation, and digital identity frameworks carry authentication forward.

Integration with national digital IDs and passports demonstrates how to deliver stronger security and streamline regulated interactions like age verification. Sweden’s BankID model shows the impact: over 90% fraud reduction due to identity-linked payments.

Sellers, issuers, and acquirers must prepare for token orchestration, embedded commerce flows, and identity-integrated payments.

Building the Future of Commerce in Australia and New Zealand

Now is the moment for every part of the local ecosystem to come together – sellers, financial institutions, technology partners, and regulators – to deliver the best outcomes for Australia and New Zealand. That means helping businesses grow, creating exceptional experiences for consumers, and safeguarding the system against fraud.

The convergence of intelligent agents, tokenised value, programmable assets, and ambient finance will redefine how commerce operates. Invisible layers of the payment system will become smarter, safer, and more deeply integrated.

Sellers must prepare for agents displacing traditional search, content replacing checkouts, and loyalty evolving through long-term AI interactions. Financial institutions must embrace real-time data, AI-powered personalised financial experiences, and expand cross-border rails to suit a federated global economy.

In 2026 Australia and New Zealand can grasp the opportunity to continue to lead in digital innovation.